Strategies for Analytical Judgment:
Hypothesis — The first step of the process is to identify all potential hypotheses, preferably using a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
The process discourages the analyst from choosing one "likely" hypothesis and using evidence to prove its accuracy. Cognitive bias is minimized when all possible hypotheses are considered. Some evidence will have greater "diagnosticity" than other evidence — that is, some will be more helpful in judging the relative likelihood of alternative hypotheses.
This step is the most important, according to Heuer. Instead of looking at one hypothesis and all the evidence "working down" the matrixthe analyst is encouraged to consider one piece of evidence at a time, and examine it against all possible hypotheses "working across" the matrix.
Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the analyst must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth. How Does Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Improve Intelligence Analysis? By Richards J. Heuer, Jr. It bypasses the analysis of alternative explanations or outcomes, which should be fundamental to any complete analysis. As a result, it fails to. Then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (right) talks with President Barack Obama in the Oval Office, with John Brennan and other national security aides present.
Less consistency implies a lower likelihood. The least consistent hypotheses are eliminated. While the matrix generates a definitive mathematical total for each hypothesis, the analyst must use their judgment to make the final conclusion.
Sensitivity — The analyst tests the conclusions using sensitivity analysiswhich weighs how the conclusion would be affected if key evidence or arguments were wrong, misleading, or subject to different interpretations. The analyst also identifies milestones in the process that can serve as indicators in future analyses.
It is widely believed to help overcome cognitive biasesthough there is a lack of strong empirical evidence to support this belief. This allows the decisionmaker or other analysts to see the sequence of rules and data that led to the conclusion.
The ACH matrix can be problematic when analyzing a complex project. It can be cumbersome for an analyst to manage a large database with multiple pieces of evidence. Especially in intelligence, both governmental and business, analysts must always be aware that the opponent s is intelligent and may be generating information intended to deceive.
The resulting hypotheses are converted to a dynamic Bayesian network and value of information analysis is employed to isolate assumptions implicit in the evaluation of paths in, or conclusions of, particular hypotheses.
As evidence in the form of observations of states or assumptions is observed, they can become the subject of separate validation. Should an assumption or necessary state be negated, hypotheses depending on it are rejected.
This is a form of root cause analysis. Evidence also presents a problem if it is unreliable. The evidence used in the matrix is static and therefore it can be a snapshot in time.
According to social constructivist critics, ACH also fails to stress sufficiently or to address as a method the problematic nature of the initial formation of the hypotheses used to create its grid. There is considerable evidence, for example, that in addition to any bureaucratic, psychological, or political biases that may affect hypothesis generation, there are also factors of culture and identity at work.
These socially constructed factors may restrict or pre-screen which hypotheses end up being considered, and then reinforce confirmation bias in those selected. ACH demands that the analyst makes too many discrete judgments, a great many of which contribute little if anything to discerning the best hypothesis ACH misconceives the nature of the relationship between items of evidence and hypotheses by supposing that items of evidence are, on their own, consistent or inconsistent with hypotheses.
ACH treats the hypothesis set as "flat", i.
ACH activities at realistic scales leave analysts disoriented or discombobulated. Structured analysis of competing hypotheses Edit The structured analysis of competing hypotheses offers analysts an improvement over the limitations of the original ACH. If the evidence showed that it is more likely there are WMDs in Iraq then two new hypotheses could be formulated: By giving the ACH structure, the analyst is able to give a nuanced estimate.Intel education on the cutting edge.
We graduate in-demand, entry-level analysts who are skilled in preparing assessments based on the collection, correlation and analysis of intelligence data for employers both in government and private sectors, especially those in business, law enforcement, national security and the military.
Ultimately, there are multiple analysis tools available to the Intelligence Community, including Opportunity Analysis, Linchpin Analysis, ACH, Analogy, et cetera.
The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, with its own unique pros and cons, is another. Western Theories of Justice. Justice is one of the most important moral and political concepts. The word comes from the Latin jus, meaning right or law.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines the “just” person as one who typically “does what is morally right” and is disposed to “giving everyone his or her due,” offering the word “fair” as a synonym.
Ethics. The field of ethics (or moral philosophy) involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong behavior. Philosophers today usually divide ethical theories into three general subject areas: metaethics, normative ethics, and applied ethics. An Analysis of the Alternative and Competing Theories of Intelligence PAGES 5.
WORDS 3, View Full Essay. More essays like this: Not sure what I'd do without @Kibin - Alfredo Alvarez, student @ Miami University. Exactly what I needed.
- Jenna Kraig, student @ . Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the analyst must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth.